Sunday, May 28, 2017

Charting Last Week (5/22 - 5/26/17)

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) announced on Friday that in the first quarter of 2017 GDP grew at 1.15% quarter over quarter growth at an annualized rate, up from the previous estimate of 0.67%. This was close to the North Star Estimate of 1.32%. The growth rate was a higher than most economists were projecting. The average estimate of 50 economists surveyed in The Wall Street Journal's Economic Forecasting Survey was 0.89%. The North Star GDP Estimate for the first quarter is 2.09% year over year growth (1.38% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the second quarter of 2017 is at 2.09% year over year growth (1.39% QoQ) up from last week's reading of 2.06%. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.

US Stocks were up as the S&P 500 hit a new record high this week. The Fed Funds futures are now implying just one more rate hike in 2017 with a 83.1% chance of a rate hike by June (up from a 78.5% chance last week) according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) increased by 0.13% percentage points to 2.74%, the highest it has been since July 2014. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 4.88%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.  

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These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.