Sunday, August 13, 2017

Charting Last Week (8/7 - 8/11/17)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the second quarter is 1.98% year over year growth (2.15% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the third quarter of 2017 is at 2.01% year over year growth (2.50% QoQ) up from 2.00% last week. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.
Stocks took a hit this week as North Korea and the U.S. traded harsh words. It was the first weekly decline of over 1% for the S&P 500 in four months. According to the Fed Funds futures the next rate hike has been pushed out to June of 2018 (last week it was March of 2018). The Fed Funds futures are now implying a 57.5% chance of a rate hike by June 2018 (down from a 69.2% chance last week) according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.
The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) decreased by 0.04% percentage points to 2.78%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) increased to 5.14%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.    
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These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.