Sunday, July 1, 2018

Charting Last Week (6/25/18 - 6/29/18)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the first quarter is 2.20% year over year growth (-0.06% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the second quarter is at 2.35% year over year growth (1.59% QoQ) up from 2.34% last week. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.
Stock prices were down for the second week in a row. Bond prices were mixed for the week. Trade War tensions continued to weigh on the markets. The Fed Funds futures are now implying a 45.3% chance of two more rate hikes this year (down from 48.4% last week) according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.
The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) decreased by 0.07% percentage points to 1.60%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 5.75%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.  
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These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past perforance is not an indication of future performance.