Sunday, October 14, 2018

Charting Last Week (10/8/18 - 10/12/18)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the third quarter is 2.49% year over year growth (1.33% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the fourth quarter is at 2.51% year over year growth (2.35% QoQ) down from 2.53% last week. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.
The S&P 500 (SPY) declined 4.12% for the week, the largest weekly decline since March. Investors are worried about rising interests, the Chinese trade war, and a possible slowdown in Earnings Growth. However, Earnings for the S&P 500 companies are expected to grow at a rate of 19.1% over last year for the Third Quarter. The growth rate for the past three quarters have been the highest since 2011. The Fed Funds futures are now implying a 79.7% chance of one more rate hike in December (down from 82.1% last week) according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.
The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) decreased by 0.17% percentage points to 0.84%%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 4.71%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.  
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These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past perforance is not an indication of future performance.