Sunday, January 6, 2019

Charting Last Week (12/31/18 - 1/4/19)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the fourth quarter is 2.51% year over year growth (1.76% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the first quarter of 2019 is at 2.11% year over year growth (1.04% QoQ) up from 1.81% last week. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.
The market rallied on Friday after a strong jobs report and comments by Fed Chair Powell that the Fed will be flexible and is not in a hurry to raise rates. The Fed Funds futures are now implying only a 5.1% chance that the Fed will raise rates in 2019 (down from 11.7% last week) and a 25.4% chance that they will cut rates according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.
There were not any updates to the International Leading Indices during the week. The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) is at 0.05%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 3.96%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.  
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These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.