Sunday, March 17, 2019

Charting Last Week (3/11/19 - 3/15/19)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the fourth quarter is 2.06% year over year growth (-1.40% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the first quarter of 2019 is at 1.87% year over year growth (-2.48% QoQ) up from 1.79% last week. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.
It was a positive week for both stocks and bonds. The S&P 500 (SPY) was up 2.95% for the week. The Fed Funds futures are now implying a 27.7% chance that the Fed will cut rates in 2019 (up from 19.8% last week) according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.
The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) decreased by 0.46% percentage points to -0.61%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 3.42%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.  
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These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.