Sunday, July 3, 2016

Charting Last Week (6/27 - 7/1/16)

The Daily Leading Index increased by 0.27% percentage points to 2.45%. The Daily Coincident Index is at 1.93%. The Daily Leading Index page on the tab above is updated daily during the week.
The market rebounded sharply after falling Monday and finished the week with strong gains. Yields on the 10 year Treasury briefly fell to their lowest level ever at 1.385% Friday before rebounding slightly. The Fed fund futures are implying no more rate hikes this year. Just five weeks ago, the futures were predicting a rate hike in July. The Fed Funds futures are now implying a only a 14% chance of a rate hike by February 2017 and a 2% chance of a rate cut according CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.
The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) was unchanged at 0.65%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) increased to 2.44%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.