Sunday, July 10, 2016

Charting Last Week (7/5 - 7/8/16)

The Daily Leading Index increased by 0.09% percentage points to 2.54%. The Daily Coincident Index is at 2.00%. The Daily Leading Index page on the tab above is updated daily during the week.
US equities continued rally after the initial Brexit downturn. The S&P 500 is close to its all-time high. Yields on the 10 year Treasury closed the week at their lowest level ever at 1.358%. The Fed fund futures are implying no more rate hikes this year. Just six weeks ago, the futures were predicting a rate hike this July. Now the next expected rate hike is more than a year out. The Fed Funds futures are now implying a only a 27.5% chance of a rate hike by June 2017 and a 2.2% chance of a rate cut according CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.
The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) increased by 0.12% percentage points to 0.77%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) increased to 2.47%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.