Thursday, April 27, 2017

2017 Q1 GDP Growth Rate Predictions

Tomorrow, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will announce the Advanced Estimate of the 2017 First Quarter GDP growth rate. The average prediction in the Wall Street Journal's Economic Forecasting Survey of 60 economists is a 1.42% GDP growth rate (quarter over quarter growth at an annualized rate) with a high of 3.4% and a low of 0.6%. Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model is forecasting 0.17%. New York Fed's NowCast model is predicting 2.65%.

The North Star GDP Forecast for the first quarter of 2017 is at 2.05% year over year growth which comes out to 0.74% (quarter over quarter growth at an annualized rate). The North Star GDP Estimate for the fourth quarter of 2016 is 2.08% year over year growth. Below is a slideshow of North Star's GDP Estimate and Forecast going back through the decades to 1920.

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These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.