Sunday, April 30, 2017

Charting Last Week (4/24-4/28/17)

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) announced on Friday that in the first quarter of 2017 GDP grew at 0.67% quarter over quarter growth at an annualized rate. This was very close to the North Star Forecast of 0.74%. The growth rate was a lower than most economists were projecting. The average estimate of 60 economists surveyed in The Wall Street Journal's Economic Forecasting Survey was 1.42%. 58 of the economists predicted higher growth ranging from 0.8% to 3.4%. One estimated 0.6% and one 0.7%. The North Star Forecast for next quarter is 1.84%. This is lower than all 60 economist's predictions which average 2.8% ranging from 2% to 4%. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.

Stocks were up for the week while bond prices were mostly down. The Fed Funds futures are now implying two more rate hikes in 2017 with a 66.6% chance of a rate hike by June (up from a 48.5% chance last week) according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) increased by 0.17% percentage points to 2.46%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) decreased to 5.39%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.